IOWA DECIDES / 2026

Prediction Contest
Official Rules

Make your picks. The closest guess wins a prize. Free to enter. One entry per person.

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Effective: October 2, 2026.

1. Completely optional and free

The contest is administered by Iowa Decides. No purchase, payment, donation, subscription, voting, or voter registration is required to enter, qualify, or receive a prize. The simulator is a separate, free tool. Anyone can explore it, leave races unpicked, use presets and Clear, or change and reset a map without entering the contest or providing personal information. These are predictions, not votes or an opinion poll.

2. Who may enter

Entrants must be real, verifiable people who are Iowa residents and at least 18 years old when they submit. One entry per person, regardless of the number of email addresses, public profiles, devices, or browsers used. People administering this contest or with private access to entries are not eligible to win. Automated entries, fictitious identities, impersonation, and attempts to evade the one-entry rule are ineligible.

A valid entry includes your full name, email, and public identity information that helps us find and identify you. You can enter a Facebook or LinkedIn profile name, a handle with its platform, a work page, or another public reference showing who you are. Full links, links without “https://”, and plain text are accepted. You do not need your own website or a social media account. We use this information to help verify identity and one entry per person; the information and your eligibility statement are subject to review. Receiving a receipt is not a confirmation that your identity or eligibility has been verified. No phone number, uploaded ID, or Iowa Decides account is required. Potential winners may be asked to confirm their eligibility by replying to the administrator.

3. Deadline and submitting your entry

Entries must be received before November 3, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. Central. The server's receipt time controls; an entry arriving at or after the deadline is late even if the form was opened earlier. Submit through “Enter contest” on the Prediction Tool page. The entry form shows whether submissions are open.

To enter, select one listed candidate or ticket in at least one race, up to all 101 contested races. The eligible races are: governor/lieutenant governor (one ticket), the five other statewide executive offices, U.S. Senate, four U.S. House districts, 71 Iowa House districts, and 19 Iowa Senate districts. Enter your name, email address, and public identity information, then select “Submit my contest entry.” Your picks, seat totals, submission time, receipt, and acceptance order are filled in automatically. Selecting Submit confirms your eligibility and agreement to these rules, as stated beside the button. You can expand the attached-picks review before submitting. The 35 uncontested legislative races and 25 continuing state Senate seats are included in legislative totals but do not count toward the one-pick minimum and are not scored. Races you leave unpicked remain unpicked in your submitted entry; they are not filled automatically. County and local offices, judicial retention votes, and ballot questions are outside this candidate-race contest. The other U.S. Senate seat is not on the 2026 ballot.

An accepted entry is a fixed copy of your picks, with its submission time and acceptance order recorded by the server. It cannot be edited or replaced. Duplicate entries are not additional chances; the first valid accepted entry is the one considered. Technical retries of the same submission do not create a second entry. You may continue experimenting after submitting; later changes to the simulator never change that entry. Keep your receipt. If no receipt appears, use the form's retry option; do not assume an entry was received.

4. What “closest” means

The entrant with the most correctly predicted winners across the eligible contested state and federal races ranks first. Each correct candidate earns one point; each incorrect or unpicked race earns zero. Rankings use the total number of correct picks, not the percentage correct. Choosing more races gives you more opportunities to earn points. Maximum score: 101 points before any voided races. Seat totals and party majorities help you review your scenario but are not additional scoring categories. Forecast presets receive no advantage or penalty.

Scoring uses final certified results published by the Iowa Secretary of State or the responsible Iowa election authority, including any recount or contest correction before the winner is confirmed. A listed candidate must be the certified winner to earn a point. If a write-in or another candidate not included on the contest ballot wins, no listed-candidate pick earns a point for that race. A cancelled race or a race with no determinable certified winner is excluded equally for everyone. Continuing terms, automatic seats, later party switches, and later vacancies do not score. The contest ballot and scoring rules are fixed for accepted entries; subsequent guide updates do not rewrite accepted picks.

5. Automatic tie-breaker

If eligible entrants have the same number of correctly predicted winners, the earliest accepted entry ranks first. The server records the submission time and database acceptance sequence automatically. That sequence resolves entries received at the same displayed time. No extra prediction or random drawing is used.

For example, if two eligible entrants each predict 90 winners correctly, the entry accepted first ranks ahead. Entrants do not enter or choose their submission time or acceptance order.

6. Verification and the prize

Prize to be announced later.

The highest-ranked eligible, verified entrant wins a prize. The likelihood of winning depends on the number of eligible entries and their accuracy. Final standings are prepared only after the required results are certified. The administrator verifies the potential winner's identity, Iowa residency, age, and one-entry compliance before confirming the award. An ineligible or unverifiable entry is removed from consideration and the next eligible entry is reviewed. No one must pay or make a purchase to claim a prize.

The administrator will contact a potential winner at the submitted email address. The potential winner must reply within 14 calendar days of that notification or the administrator may proceed to the next eligible entry. Any entry review applies only to the contest and never restricts simulator use. Material problems affecting fair administration will be disclosed here; scoring will not be changed retroactively to favor an entrant.

7. Your information

Ordinary simulator picks stay in your browser. Opening the entry review does not create an entry. Only an explicit form submission sends your name, email, public identity information, picks, chamber totals, and agreement to the contest's private records. Entries and final results are sent privately to the contest administrator for verification, administration, and scoring. Your details are not published as a contestant directory and are not used to enroll you in marketing or subscriptions. Service providers needed to host the entry system and deliver administrator email process this information for those purposes.

The administrator retains entry records for contest administration, disputes, and applicable recordkeeping obligations. Your browser may retain a receipt and submitted picks so you can review them on that device; your name, email, and identity information are not saved by this form in browser storage. Clearing local browser data does not delete or replace an accepted contest entry.

8. After entry closes

The map, incomplete scenarios, manual picks, polling control, all supported presets, and clear/reset controls remain available after the deadline. Only contest submission closes. The simulator and contest are independent of Iowa's election officials and are not affiliated with a campaign or political party.