IAIOWA DECIDESYour 2026 election guide
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NOVEMBER 3, 2026

IOWA ELECTIONS 2026 · POLLS & MARKETS

Polls &
prediction markets.

Compare polls for governor, Senate, Congress and statewide offices. Governor market prices appear separately.

POLLS
Who voters support.Reported support among people surveyed.
MARKETS
Who traders expect to win.Contract prices, not a share of votes.

IN FOCUS

Early voting spotlight

Iowa statewide
Ballots requested
482,855
Ballots received
464,216

As of · State report (PDF) · Saved November 2 report

Iowa reports 464,216 absentee ballots received, 26,527 more than in the October 31 report. Registered Democrats account for 46.1% of received ballots, Republicans 33.8%, no-party voters 19.7% and other registrations 0.4%; these are participation figures, not candidate votes.

What these counts mean

Ballots issued: 480,106.

These are statewide administrative counts from the Iowa Secretary of State. Requested, issued and received ballots are distinct counts. Received ballots measure participation, not election results or votes for candidates, and do not guarantee that a ballot will be counted. This report is separate from opinion polling.

Official statistics index · 2026 general election

Compare with past elections

Registration affiliation, not candidate votes. Not certified results, turnout rates or a forecast.

Frozen comparisons · reviewed October 31, 2026. Comparison snapshots are fixed; statewide totals above update separately.

Received ballots by registration party

4 days before each Election Day · Reports: October 30, 2026 vs. November 4, 2022

All parties received: 2026 — 407,549 · 2022 — 292,506

Compared with the matched 2022 report, Democratic received ballots are up 37,716 and Republican received ballots are up 43,225. Democratic registrants have 53,869 ballots more than Republican registrants in this frozen 2026 snapshot—not votes for either party.

20262022Scale: 0–200,000 ballots
Exact counts, shares & changes
Received ballots by registration affiliation — October 30, 2026 vs. November 4, 2022
Party2026 received2022 receivedChange2026 share2022 shareShare change
Democratic191,768154,052+37,71647.1%52.7%−5.6 pp
Republican137,89994,674+43,22533.8%32.4%+1.5 pp
No party76,46743,096+33,37118.8%14.7%+4.0 pp
Other1,415684+7310.3%0.2%+0.1 pp
All parties407,549292,506+115,043100%100%0.0 pp
Method, report cutoffs & sources

The same election type is the closer comparison. No three-days-out 2022 report was found in the reviewed archives; no missing day is estimated.

Share denominator: all received absentee ballots in that report, including Other. Counts include in-person absentee voting. Differences use unrounded shares; “pp” means percentage points, not percent change.

2022: data from the night before the report. 2026: 08:00, timezone not stated. Report dates are equally far from Election Day; data cutoffs are not identical.

2022: sum of the four congressional-district reports, pages 33–36. 2026: retained October 30 statewide report, page 1; the agency’s current URL rotates.

2026 source report (PDF) · 2022 source reports (PDF)

ADDITIONAL POLL REPORTS

Additional reported polls: AtlasIntel, Rasmussen Senate, YouGov and NYT/Siena

These Iowa governor and U.S. Senate reports remain outside our numerical charts and automatic picks while verification is incomplete.

  • AtlasIntel / PollsterGraph · November 2 report: Governor: Sand 54.1%, Lahn 44.0%, Other 1.9%, Don’t know 0.0%. Senate: Turek 50.5%, Hinson 46.4%, Other 2.7%, Would not vote 0.3%, Don’t know 0.2%. The October 28–November 1 survey interviewed 1,219 Iowa likely voters online using Atlas random digital recruitment (RDR), with a stated margin of error of ±3 percentage points at 95% confidence. Iterative post-stratification weights cover demographics, region and previous electoral behavior. These are the full-response figures, not the separate valid-vote model; published Senate rounding totals 100.1%. Original report: methodology and full tables. AtlasIntel and PollsterGraph are co-branded on the report, but the reviewed primary sources do not explicitly identify the commissioning or funding sponsor. The report remains outside numerical charts and automatic picks while that disclosure is unverified.
  • Rasmussen’s October 27–31 Senate survey · official toplines: Hinson 47%, Turek 46%, Laehn 3%, not sure 5%. Published rounding totals 101% and is retained. The self-funded Rasmussen / Pulse telephone and online survey interviewed 901 likely Iowa voters; reported sampling margin ±3 points at 95% confidence. The current Senate article still displays October 2, before this fieldwork; its publication date is unresolved. This Senate result remains outside numerical charts and automatic picks pending that correction.
  • YouGov’s October 26–29 survey · original PDF: Governor: Sand 53%, Lahn 46%. Senate: Turek 50%, Hinson 49%, someone else 1%. Both questions report not sure 0% and would not vote 0%; governor also reports someone else 0%. Published rounding is retained: the governor shares total 99%. This survey interviewed 2,020 likely Iowa voters October 26–29, with a reported margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Voter-file respondents were invited by text and interviewed online; results are weighted and include leaners. The report does not explicitly identify a commissioning or funding sponsor; its first-publication date is unverified.
  • NYT/Siena’s November 1 release: Governor: Sand 51%, Lahn 43%. Senate: Turek 48%, Hinson 47%. Siena’s official November 1 announcement reports these candidate shares and an Iowa sampling margin of ±4.7 percentage points, including a design effect of 1.45. These are the announcement’s reported shares, not a complete ballot table. Complete Iowa response categories, sample details and field dates have not yet been independently verified; uncertainty must also be reconciled with the full toplines.

The governor chart’s latest eligible fieldwork is Rasmussen’s October 27–31 survey, released November 2: Sand 50%, Lahn 45%, not sure 5%. The latest eligible Senate report is GrayHouse’s October 28–31 survey, released November 2: Hinson 48%, Turek 46%, Laehn 2%, don’t know 4% (initial ballot). New releases can enter the charts and automatic picks once they meet the existing inclusion requirements.

IOWA GOVERNOR · WINNING-PARTY MARKETS

Governor market board

Where the race is trading. Market prices reflect expectations about winning, not a share of votes.

TWO EXCHANGES
Polymarket live feedView current Kalshi market

Rob Sand

Democratic nominee · D

—%

Market-implied chance

Awaiting current quote

Zach Lahn

Republican nominee · R

—%

Market-implied chance

Awaiting current quote

Archived market context. Automatic price refresh is disabled; follow the exchange links for current quotes.

View Polymarket market

Kalshi · Iowa governor

Dated snapshot · Not live

As of · Manually updated

Rob Sand Democratic party86%
Zach Lahn Republican party14%

Kalshi’s displayed chances are market expectations, not vote shares. This market resolves by winning party. See the latest on Kalshi

How to read the market board

A Yes contract pays $1 if its event happens. A price of 82.5¢ is often read as roughly an 82.5% chance. It is a market expectation, not a poll result or a guarantee. Small or thinly traded markets can move sharply.

These contracts follow the winning party; the candidate names identify the current nominees. Replacement nominees follow the exchange’s rules. Kalshi normally settles on the inaugurated party, but its rules allow an earlier determination when at least four of eight named media outlets call the same winner and none calls a different winner. Polymarket uses agreement among AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification.

Live Polymarket quotes refresh every minute while this page is visible. Kalshi figures are a separately dated, manually updated snapshot; follow the Kalshi link for its latest market.

Prices can differ between exchanges and may not add to 100%. Bid is the highest offered purchase price; ask is the lowest offered sale price. Polymarket rules · Kalshi rules

Expert race ratings

Base review: . Inside Elections governor and Senate reviewed October 29, 2026; IA–02 reviewed October 21, 2026.

Expert judgments, separate from polling percentages and market prices. Ratings are not averaged or used to change automatic picks.

RaceCook Political ReportInside Elections
GovernorLean DemocraticUpdated Lean DemocratChanged Reviewed
U.S. SenateToss UpUpdated Toss-upChanged Reviewed
IA–01Lean DemocraticUpdated Tilt DemocratRecord
IA–02Toss UpUpdated Toss-upChanged Reviewed
IA–03Lean DemocraticUpdated Tilt DemocratRecord
IA–04Solid RepublicanReported via Siouxland Public MediaSolid RepublicanRecord
Rating changes, dates and sources

“Tilt” and “Lean” are distinct categories; each publisher uses its own scale. Cook dates identify rating updates except IA–04, which uses an October 9 report from Siouxland Public Media. Inside Elections dates identify source records, not necessarily rating changes, except the governor, Senate and IA–02: official race histories confirm the October 29 governor move to Lean Democrat, October 29 Senate move to Toss-up, and October 15 IA–02 move to Toss-up. Some source analysis requires a subscription.

The Cook Political Report

  • Governor: Toss Up → Lean Democratic. Source · Updated .
  • U.S. Senate: Lean Republican → Toss Up. Source · Updated .
  • U.S. House · IA–01: Toss Up → Lean Democratic. Source · Updated .
  • U.S. House · IA–02: Lean Republican → Toss Up. Source · Updated .
  • U.S. House · IA–03: Toss Up → Lean Democratic. Source · Updated .
  • U.S. House · IA–04: No rating change reported. Siouxland Public Media report · Reported .

Inside Elections

  • Governor: Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat. Source · Changed . Earlier record: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat · .
  • U.S. Senate: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. Source · Changed . Earlier record: Lean Republican → Tilt Republican · .
  • U.S. House · IA–01: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. Source · Record .
  • U.S. House · IA–02: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. Source · Changed . Earlier record: Lean Republican → Tilt Republican · .
  • U.S. House · IA–03: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. Source · Record .
  • U.S. House · IA–04: Rating unchanged. Source · Record .

What voters are saying

Governor polls: published releases through November 2, 2026 · This is a dated snapshot, not a live feed.

Latest governor fieldwork

Rasmussen Reports
901 likely voters · October 27–31
Released November 2, 2026. Newest release date: November 2, 2026 · Rasmussen Reports.

Read original report
Rob Sand · D50%
Zach Lahn · R45%
Margin of sampling error · 95% confidence

±3 pp

More filters

Date filters use publication dates and exclude reports without a verified release day.

Reported support over time

Individual survey results · share of respondents

● Rob Sand (D)■ Zach Lahn (R)

Selected survey: Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork Oct 27–31, 2026 · released Nov 2, 2026

Full history. Dates show fieldwork end; filters use publication dates.

Iowa governor polling: reported candidate support17 surveys by fieldwork end date, June 19 through October 31, 2026. Scale 0 to 60 percent. Blue circles: Rob Sand. Red squares: Zach Lahn. Sources and uncertainty are in the table.Reported support (%)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Jun 19Jul 16Aug 12Sep 7Oct 4Oct 31Fieldwork end date · 2026ITR Foundation · June: Sand 47.7%Fox News: Sand 53%Emerson College / Nexstar: Sand 48%Suffolk University: Sand 47.8%Emerson College / Nexstar: Sand 49%Cygnal / ITR Foundation: Sand 47.8%Marist University: Sand 54%Fox News: Sand 53%Suffolk University: Sand 54.8%Emerson College / Nexstar: Sand 49.0%Marist University: Sand 52%YouGov: Sand 50%Cook Political Report / New River Strategies / GS Strategy Group: Sand 54%co/efficient: Sand 49%Echelon Insights / NetChoice: Sand 50%co/efficient: Sand 50%Rasmussen Reports: Sand 50%Sand 50%ITR Foundation · June: Lahn 43.4%Fox News: Lahn 44%Emerson College / Nexstar: Lahn 43%Suffolk University: Lahn 43.6%Emerson College / Nexstar: Lahn 46%Cygnal / ITR Foundation: Lahn 44.4%Marist University: Lahn 42%Fox News: Lahn 44%Suffolk University: Lahn 42.8%Emerson College / Nexstar: Lahn 45.3%Marist University: Lahn 45%YouGov: Lahn 44%Cook Political Report / New River Strategies / GS Strategy Group: Lahn 43%co/efficient: Lahn 45%Echelon Insights / NetChoice: Lahn 46%co/efficient: Lahn 45%Rasmussen Reports: Lahn 45%Lahn 45%

Each point is one survey. Connecting lines are a visual guide, not an average or forecast. Poll details include methods and uncertainty.

Selected survey: Rasmussen Reports

Fieldwork: Oct 27–31, 2026 · Released: Nov 2, 2026

Plotted on the graph

Sand 50% · Lahn 45% · 901 likely voters.

Survey-specific mode proportions and response rate are not disclosed. This is a survey, not a forecast; governor and Senate responses share the same sample and are not independent surveys.

Method & verification notes

Rasmussen Reports states that it funds its own polls; fieldwork by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Telephone and online survey of 901 likely Iowa voters October 27–31, 2026. General methodology describes automated telephone interviews and a demographically diverse online panel, weighting by age, race, gender, political party and other factors, and likely-voter screening using voting history, campaign interest and voting intentions. Survey-specific mode proportions and response rate are not disclosed. Margin of sampling error ±3 percentage points at 95% confidence. Full governor ballot: Rob Sand 50%, Zach Lahn 45%, not sure 5%. Official governor article is dated November 2, 2026; exact first-publication time is unknown. Published percentages are preserved. This is a survey, not a forecast; governor and Senate responses share the same sample and are not independent surveys.

Read original report

Select a chart point for details. Only filtered polls with verified field dates and no unresolved published-margin conflict appear in the graph. The Siena releases remain in the table because their field dates could not be independently confirmed; CNN / SSRS remains in the table because its published margins conflict. Wedgewood’s August report is excluded because its polling integrity is disputed; its historical row retains the originally reported figures, not valid polling evidence. co/efficient’s September 16 release day is verified by the official series index and is included in release-date filtering.

Kalshi’s Democratic-win contract over time

Dated history · Not live

Light green: the Democratic Party winner contract, currently displayed as Rob Sand. Quoted probability is a market measure, not the share of voters supporting a candidate.

June 19–October 27, 2026 · Iowa dates · Separate 0–100% scale.

Kalshi Democratic-win contract: daily quoted probability131 observed daily closing bid/ask midpoints from June 19 through October 27, 2026, Iowa dates. Percent scale 0 to 100. This is a market quote, not poll vote share. Use left and right arrow keys to inspect daily observations, or use the date selector and data table.Quoted probability (%)0%20%40%60%80%100%Jun 19Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 25Candle-end date in Iowa · 20262026-06-19 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-20 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-21 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-22 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-23 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-24 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-06-25 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61.5% quoted midpoint2026-06-26 at 11:00 PM CDT: 66.5% quoted midpoint2026-06-27 at 11:00 PM CDT: 65% quoted midpoint2026-06-28 at 11:00 PM CDT: 65.5% quoted midpoint2026-06-29 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-06-30 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-01 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-02 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-03 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-04 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-05 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-06 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-07 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-08 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-09 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-10 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-11 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-12 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-13 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-14 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-15 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61% quoted midpoint2026-07-16 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62% quoted midpoint2026-07-17 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61% quoted midpoint2026-07-18 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61% quoted midpoint2026-07-19 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61% quoted midpoint2026-07-20 at 11:00 PM CDT: 60.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-21 at 11:00 PM CDT: 61.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-22 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-23 at 11:00 PM CDT: 62.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-24 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-25 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-26 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-27 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-28 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-29 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-30 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-07-31 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-01 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-02 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-03 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-04 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-05 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-06 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-07 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-08 at 11:00 PM CDT: 63.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-09 at 11:00 PM CDT: 64.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-10 at 11:00 PM CDT: 64.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-11 at 11:00 PM CDT: 70.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-12 at 11:00 PM CDT: 72.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-13 at 11:00 PM CDT: 72.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-14 at 11:00 PM CDT: 72.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-15 at 11:00 PM CDT: 72.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-16 at 11:00 PM CDT: 73.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-17 at 11:00 PM CDT: 74.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-18 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-19 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-20 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-21 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-22 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-23 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-24 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-25 at 11:00 PM CDT: 75.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-26 at 11:00 PM CDT: 75.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-27 at 11:00 PM CDT: 74.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-28 at 11:00 PM CDT: 74.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-29 at 11:00 PM CDT: 74.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-30 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-08-31 at 11:00 PM CDT: 74.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-01 at 11:00 PM CDT: 75.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-02 at 11:00 PM CDT: 75.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-03 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-04 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-05 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-06 at 11:00 PM CDT: 75.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-07 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-08 at 11:00 PM CDT: 76.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-09 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-10 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-11 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-12 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-13 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-14 at 11:00 PM CDT: 77.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-15 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-16 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-17 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-18 at 11:00 PM CDT: 78.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-19 at 11:00 PM CDT: 79.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-20 at 11:00 PM CDT: 79.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-21 at 11:00 PM CDT: 79.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-22 at 11:00 PM CDT: 82.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-23 at 11:00 PM CDT: 82.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-24 at 11:00 PM CDT: 82.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-25 at 11:00 PM CDT: 83.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-26 at 11:00 PM CDT: 83.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-27 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-28 at 11:00 PM CDT: 83.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-29 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-09-30 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-01 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-02 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-03 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-04 at 11:00 PM CDT: 85.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-05 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-06 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-07 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-08 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-09 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-10 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-11 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-12 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-13 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-14 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-15 at 11:00 PM CDT: 89.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-16 at 11:00 PM CDT: 88.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-17 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-18 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-19 at 11:00 PM CDT: 87.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-20 at 11:00 PM CDT: 86.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-21 at 11:00 PM CDT: 86.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-22 at 11:00 PM CDT: 86.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-23 at 11:00 PM CDT: 86.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-24 at 11:00 PM CDT: 86.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-25 at 11:00 PM CDT: 83.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-26 at 11:00 PM CDT: 84.5% quoted midpoint2026-10-27 at 11:00 PM CDT: 83.5% quoted midpointLatest83.5%

October 27, 2026, 11 p.m. CDT: 83.5% quoted midpoint · YES bid 83¢ / ask 84¢.

Each point is the midpoint of the observed closing YES bid and ask for a daily candle, multiplied by 100. Candle endpoints fall at 11 p.m. Iowa time, not local midnight. Quotes can exist without a trade; this is not the last-trade price or Kalshi’s headline “Chance” display. No missing values have been filled.

Source, timing & daily data (131 observations)

Contract GOVPARTYIA-26-D. Latest completed daily candle: October 27 at 11 p.m. CDT (October 28, 04:00 UTC). Retrieved October 28, 2026 at 7:33 a.m. CDT for the October 27 observation; the October 26 observation retains its October 27 retrieval; the October 25 observation retains its October 26 retrieval; October 23–24 observations retain their October 25 retrieval; October 8–22 observations retain their October 23 retrieval, and earlier observations retain the October 8 retrieval. The June 18 Iowa observation was excluded. Polymarket history became accessible and was verified October 8; it is not included in this Kalshi-only chart.

Official Kalshi market · Official data definitions · Download daily data (CSV)

Observed Kalshi Democratic-win daily closing YES quote midpoints. Iowa candle-end dates; not polling vote shares.
Iowa dateIowa endpointMidpointBid / askUTC endpoint
2026-06-1911:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-20T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2011:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-21T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2111:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-22T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2211:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-23T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2311:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-24T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2411:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-06-25T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2511:00 PM CDT61.5%60¢ / 63¢2026-06-26T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2611:00 PM CDT66.5%66¢ / 67¢2026-06-27T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2711:00 PM CDT65%64¢ / 66¢2026-06-28T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2811:00 PM CDT65.5%64¢ / 67¢2026-06-29T04:00:00Z
2026-06-2911:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-06-30T04:00:00Z
2026-06-3011:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-01T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0111:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-02T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0211:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-03T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0311:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-04T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0411:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-05T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0511:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-06T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0611:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-07T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0711:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-08T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0811:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-09T04:00:00Z
2026-07-0911:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-10T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1011:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-11T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1111:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-12T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1211:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-13T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1311:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-14T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1411:00 PM CDT62.5%62¢ / 63¢2026-07-15T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1511:00 PM CDT61%60¢ / 62¢2026-07-16T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1611:00 PM CDT62%61¢ / 63¢2026-07-17T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1711:00 PM CDT61%60¢ / 62¢2026-07-18T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1811:00 PM CDT61%60¢ / 62¢2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
2026-07-1911:00 PM CDT61%60¢ / 62¢2026-07-20T04:00:00Z
2026-07-2011:00 PM CDT60.5%60¢ / 61¢2026-07-21T04:00:00Z
2026-07-2111:00 PM CDT61.5%61¢ / 62¢2026-07-22T04:00:00Z
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Filtered poll releases

Recent reports · all dates in 2026

Pollster / sponsorField datesSampleSand · DLahn · RUncertaintySources & methods
Rasmussen ReportsReleased Nov 2, 2026Oct 27–31901 LV50%45%±3 ppMargin of sampling error · 95% confidenceOriginal report · November 2 official releaseSurvey-specific mode proportions and response rate are not disclosed. This is a survey, not a forecast; governor and Senate responses share the same sample and are not independent surveys.
Method & verification notes

Rasmussen Reports states that it funds its own polls; fieldwork by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Telephone and online survey of 901 likely Iowa voters October 27–31, 2026. General methodology describes automated telephone interviews and a demographically diverse online panel, weighting by age, race, gender, political party and other factors, and likely-voter screening using voting history, campaign interest and voting intentions. Survey-specific mode proportions and response rate are not disclosed. Margin of sampling error ±3 percentage points at 95% confidence. Full governor ballot: Rob Sand 50%, Zach Lahn 45%, not sure 5%. Official governor article is dated November 2, 2026; exact first-publication time is unknown. Published percentages are preserved. This is a survey, not a forecast; governor and Senate responses share the same sample and are not independent surveys.

co/efficientReleased Oct 29, 2026 · official indexOct 281,020 LV50%45%±3.05 ppPollster-reported margin of error · confidence level not disclosedOriginal report (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Official release indexIndependent public polling by co/efficient; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. Pollster-reported margin of error ±3.05 percentage points; confidence level, recruitment details, mode proportions, detailed likely-voter screening and response rate are not disclosed. Governor and Senate questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. The margin of error is not the uncertainty of the difference between candidates; these results are not a forecast or winning probability.
Method & verification notes

Independent public polling by co/efficient; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. No separate external funder is identified. Surveyed 1,020 likely general-election voters in Iowa on October 28, 2026, using mobile text responses and landline interviews. Weighted by age, gender, race, education, geography and registered party to the likely 2026 general electorate. Pollster-reported margin of error ±3.05 percentage points; confidence level, recruitment details, mode proportions, detailed likely-voter screening and response rate are not disclosed. The official series index dates the release October 29, 2026; the Iowa report itself states the release month only. Exact first-publication time is not stated. Governor and Senate questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. Published shares are retained without normalization. The margin of error is not the uncertainty of the difference between candidates; these results are not a forecast or winning probability. Governor full ballot Q5: Rob Sand 50%, Zach Lahn 45%, undecided 5%.

Echelon Insights / NetChoiceReleased Oct 27, 2026Oct 16–23403 LV50%46%±6.5 ppMargin of error · weighting-adjusted; confidence level not disclosedOriginal report · October 27 sponsor releaseSponsored by NetChoice; conducted by Echelon Insights October 16–23, 2026. Iowa oversample of 403 voters in the likely 2026 electorate, from a 3,644-person national and six-state study; not an independent additional national poll. Iowa margin of error ±6.5 percentage points adjusted for weighting; confidence level and Iowa-only mode proportions are not disclosed. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. The source does not define the asterisk or dash in the inspected toplines; neither is converted to zero or an inferred percentage.
Method & verification notes

Sponsored by NetChoice; conducted by Echelon Insights October 16–23, 2026. Iowa oversample of 403 voters in the likely 2026 electorate, from a 3,644-person national and six-state study; not an independent additional national poll. English-language online and text-to-web interviews, with online panels from Cint/Lucid, PureSpectrum and RepData matched to the L2 voter file; text invitations used L2. Weighted using ACS, CPS Voting and Registration, L2 and modeled turnout, including demographic, geographic and party-by-ideology targets. Iowa margin of error ±6.5 percentage points adjusted for weighting; confidence level and Iowa-only mode proportions are not disclosed. Likely electorate includes respondents already voted or reporting definite, probable or 50–50 intent. Ballot results combine initial preferences and leaners, including already-cast ballots; they are survey responses, not election results. Governor and Senate are the same Iowa survey, not independent polls. Released October 27, 2026. Published rounded shares and literal symbols are preserved without normalization. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Governor net support: Rob Sand 50%, Zach Lahn 46%, unsure 3%, someone else —, did not vote for this office *%. The source does not define the asterisk or dash in the inspected toplines; neither is converted to zero or an inferred percentage. Numeric shares total 99%; no residual is inferred. Subcategory rounding is not used to recompute published net support. Complete governor toplines: page 14; methodology: page 28.

Cook Political Report / New River Strategies / GS Strategy GroupReleased Oct 21, 2026Oct 9–13602 LV54%43%±4.0 ppMargin of error · 95% confidenceOriginal report · Methodology · page 28 · Cook release · Oct 21Sponsored by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter; conducted by New River Strategies (Democratic) and GS Strategy Group (Republican). Weighting targets, recruitment and mode proportions, response rate and detailed likely-voter screening are not disclosed in the inspected methodology. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Released October 21, 2026; the later release does not make its fieldwork newer than the October 15–19 co/efficient survey.
Method & verification notes

Sponsored by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter; conducted by New River Strategies (Democratic) and GS Strategy Group (Republican). Interviews with 602 likely 2026 Iowa voters, October 9–13, by SMS-to-web and online. Reported margin of error ±4.0 percentage points at 95% confidence. Weighting targets, recruitment and mode proportions, response rate and detailed likely-voter screening are not disclosed in the inspected methodology. Results include leaners; base responses are not mixed with the reported net categories. Governor and Senate findings are from the same Iowa survey, not independent polls. Published rounded shares are retained without normalization. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Released October 21, 2026; the later release does not make its fieldwork newer than the October 15–19 co/efficient survey. Governor including leaners: Rob Sand 54%, Zach Lahn 43%, don’t know 3%. Complete toplines: page 4.

co/efficientReleased Oct 19, 2026 · official indexOct 15–19863 LV49%45%±3.32 ppPollster-reported margin of errorOriginal report (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Official release indexIndependent public polling; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. The report lists mobile text responses, landline interviews and live landline interviews; mode proportions are not disclosed. Recruitment details, likely-voter screening, response rate and confidence level are not disclosed. Governor, Senate and statewide generic House questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. Reported sampling uncertainty is not a forecast or winning probability.
Method & verification notes

Independent public polling; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. The report lists mobile text responses, landline interviews and live landline interviews; mode proportions are not disclosed. Weighted by age, gender, race, education, geography and registered party to the likely 2026 general electorate. Recruitment details, likely-voter screening, response rate and confidence level are not disclosed. The official series index dates this release October 19, 2026; the Iowa report gives the release month only. Governor, Senate and statewide generic House questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. Reported sampling uncertainty is not a forecast or winning probability. Governor full ballot: Sand 49%, Lahn 45%, undecided 6%.

National Public Affairs (NPA)Memo dated October 19, 2026 · first publication unverifiedOct 8–12678 LV50%45%±3.8 ppMargin of error · 95% confidenceOriginal reportThe memo does not identify a sponsor. Weighted to the expected 2026 general electorate on key demographics; specific weighting targets, mode proportions, response rate and likely-voter screening details are not disclosed. This survey is not a forecast or winning probability. October 19, 2026 is the memo date, not a verified release date.
Method & verification notes

The memo does not identify a sponsor. Voter-file-based sample; live calls to landlines and cell phones and text-to-web. Weighted to the expected 2026 general electorate on key demographics; specific weighting targets, mode proportions, response rate and likely-voter screening details are not disclosed. Ballot results include leaners. Reported margin ±3.8 percentage points at 95% confidence. October 19, 2026 is the memo date. Published rounded percentages are retained without normalization. This survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Governor including leaners: Sand 50%, Lahn 45%, undecided 5%. First-publication date has not been independently verified. October 19, 2026 is the memo date, not a verified release date. Held out of numerical charts and Pick the Polls pending release verification.

Marist UniversityReleased Oct 15, 2026Oct 8–111,100 registered voters; likelihood-weighted LV results; separate LV count not reported52%45%±6.6 ppMargin of error · likelihood-weighted LVOriginal report · Marist releaseSeparate unweighted LV count is not reported; 1,100 is the RV base, not an LV count. RV and LV are alternative populations of the same survey, not independent polls.
Method & verification notes

Marist University funded. October 8–11 interviews with 1,100 Iowa registered voters: 186 live telephone, 778 text and 136 online. Telephone sample randomly selected from the L2 voter database; online panelists matched by Cint to L2. English and Spanish interviews; demographic, education and regional weights, then estimated voting-probability weights for likely-voter results. Separate unweighted LV count is not reported; 1,100 is the RV base, not an LV count. LV margin of error ±6.6 points; RV margin ±4.5 points; design effect 2.34 incorporated. Published rounded shares and <1 are retained without normalization. RV and LV are alternative populations of the same survey, not independent polls. No September-RV to October-LV trend is inferred. Released October 15, 2026. Governor LV: Sand 52%, Lahn 45%, another party <1%, undecided 2%, no response 1%. RV results: Sand 54%, Lahn 43%, another party <1%, undecided 2%, no response <1%. At the October 15 release, YouGov’s October 12 fieldwork was later than this survey’s fieldwork.

YouGovReleased Oct 14, 2026 · official indexOct 6–122,245 LV50%44%±3.1 ppMargin of errorOriginal report · YouGov publication indexNo separate sponsor is identified in the original PDF. Not a forecast or winning probability.
Method & verification notes

No separate sponsor is identified in the original PDF. Stratified random sample from the Iowa registered-voter list; text invitations to online interviews. Weighted by gender, age, geography, party registration, and imputed education, 2024 presidential vote and past Senate vote. Likely-voter weights use past vote, demographics and self-reported likelihood to vote. Five questions are not reported. October 14 publication is established by YouGov’s official survey-results index metadata; the PDF itself supplies fieldwork dates but no release date. This likely-voter sample is distinct from the September registered-voter record; no direct trend is inferred. Not a forecast or winning probability. Governor results: Sand 50%, Lahn 44%, someone else 0%, undecided 6%, will not vote 0%. Survey sample is 2,245; the governor item’s unweighted base is 2,244. The pollster reports ±3.1 points for the full likely-voter sample.

Emerson College / NexstarReleased Oct 9, 2026Oct 5–6650 LV49.0%45.3%±3.8 ppCredibility intervalOriginal report · Secondary sourceNexstar Media sponsored. Pollster-reported ±3.8-point credibility interval, not a conventional probability-sampling margin of error. Exact workbook toplines rounded to one decimal; not a forecast or winning probability.
Method & verification notes

Nexstar Media sponsored. October 5–6 survey of 650 Iowa likely voters; MMS text-to-web using the Aristotle voter file plus PureSpectrum online-panel interviews, hosted on QuestionPro. Weighted by gender, education, party registration and region. Pollster-reported ±3.8-point credibility interval, not a conventional probability-sampling margin of error. Exact workbook toplines rounded to one decimal; not a forecast or winning probability. Governor: undecided 5.7%.

CNN / SSRSReleased Oct 8, 2026Sep 29–Oct 5801 LV51%42%Conflicting published margins: CNN ±4.2 pp; SSRS up to ±5.3 ppMargin of sampling errorOriginal report · SSRS methodology · Oct 9 · CNN syndicated report · Oct 8Candidate results are from CNN’s chart; the full questionnaire and other response categories are unavailable. This is not a forecast or winning probability. Because the published margins conflict, this survey is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls until the discrepancy is resolved. The October 9 supplementary release is not a new poll; the original October 8 release date and candidate results are unchanged.
Method & verification notes

CNN poll conducted by SSRS, September 29–October 5. Random sample from voter lists and a probability-based panel; online and live telephone interviews. All sampled registered voters are weighted by predicted likelihood of voting. Iowa likely-voter base: 801. CNN’s October 8 syndicated report lists ±4.2 points; SSRS’s October 9 release lists up to ±5.3 points for the same Iowa survey. The difference is unresolved. Candidate results are from CNN’s chart; the full questionnaire and other response categories are unavailable. No residual percentages are inferred. This is not a forecast or winning probability. Because the published margins conflict, this survey is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls until the discrepancy is resolved. The October 9 supplementary release is not a new poll; the original October 8 release date and candidate results are unchanged. Source correction checked October 17, 2026.

Suffolk UniversityReleased Oct 7, 2026Oct 1–4500 LV54.8%42.8%±4.4 ppMargin of errorOriginal report · Secondary sourceNot a forecast or winning probability.
Method & verification notes

Live telephone interviews of 500 likely general-election voters. Governor Q9 includes leaners; undecided 2.2%, refused 0.2%. Reported sampling margin ±4.4 percentage points at 95% confidence. Release and questionnaire identify likely voters despite the index describing registered voters. Not a forecast or winning probability.

New York Times / SienaReleased Oct 4, 2026 · Siena governor announcementNot independently verifiedNot verified · LV52%41%Not independently verifiedUncertaintyOriginal reportSample size, fieldwork, uncertainty, interview mode and other response categories were not independently verified from accessible primary material. Excluded from the field-date chart.
Method & verification notes

Siena’s original governor announcement dated October 4 verifies these likely-voter toplines and links NYT’s October 3 Iowa report. Sample size, fieldwork, uncertainty, interview mode and other response categories were not independently verified from accessible primary material. No residual percentages are inferred. NYT / Siena partnership. Excluded from the field-date chart.

Fox NewsReleased Oct 1, 2026Sep 24–281,008 LV53%44%±3 ppMargin of errorOriginal reportFox News sponsored; Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research. RV and LV are the same survey, not independent polls.
Method & verification notes

Fox News sponsored; Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research. Live phone and text-to-web. Likely-voter subsample; full sample: 1,204 registered voters, Sand 53%, Lahn 43%, ±2.5 pp. Other 1%, do not know 2% in both populations; would not vote below 0.5%. Includes leaners. RV and LV are the same survey, not independent polls.

Marist UniversityReleased Sep 22, 2026Sep 17–201,050 RV54%42%±4.4 ppMargin of errorOriginal report · Secondary sourceThis is one survey, not an average or a forecast.
Method & verification notes

Registered voters; live phone interviews, text, and online. Original table packet, page 8: Sand 54%, Lahn 42%, other 1%, undecided/refused 3%. This is one survey, not an average or a forecast.

co/efficientReleased Sep 16, 2026Sep 14–16831 LV46%42%±3.39 ppMargin of errorOriginal report (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Secondary sourceFirm describes this as independent public polling with no candidate, party, or independent-expenditure sponsor. Governor and Senate questions belong to the same survey. This does not establish that the earlier check did not occur, or that the poll was fabricated or retracted.
Method & verification notes

Governor question: 12% undecided. Mobile text responses and landline interviews. Firm describes this as independent public polling with no candidate, party, or independent-expenditure sponsor. The official Battlegrounds series index verifies the September 16, 2026 release day; the individual report states the month only. Governor and Senate questions belong to the same survey. The original Iowa report URL and series index now display the October release, superseding their September content. These September figures and release context are retained from the earlier source verification; the current URL is not evidence of the September results. Held out of numerical charts and automatic picks on October 23, 2026 pending recovery of original September evidence. A retained October 10 verification ledger describes the earlier review, but this pass did not locate the supporting original capture. This does not establish that the earlier check did not occur, or that the poll was fabricated or retracted.

Cygnal / ITR FoundationReleased Sep 15, 2026Sep 9–11500 LV47.8%44.4%±4.38 ppMargin of errorOriginal reportSponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation; 7.8% undecided.
Method & verification notes

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation; 7.8% undecided.

YouGovReleased Sep 11, 2026Sep 3–82,169 RV50%39%±3.5 ppMargin of errorOriginal reportFull registered-voter sample shown; likely-voter subsets are not counted as separate polls. External sponsorship is not disclosed in the inspected report. The September 11 release day is corroborated by dated secondary coverage, not a dated primary release page. Held out of numerical charts and automatic picks on October 23, 2026 pending complete verification of sponsorship and primary first-release evidence. This is a verification gap, not a finding that the poll was fabricated or retracted; original reported results are retained.
Method & verification notes

Full registered-voter sample shown; likely-voter subsets are not counted as separate polls. Governor Q10 reports Sand 50%, Lahn 39%, someone else 0%, undecided 10%, and will not vote 1%. Full survey: 2,169 registered voters; governor-question unweighted base: 2,167. Stratified random voter-list sample recruited by text and interviewed online. External sponsorship is not disclosed in the inspected report. The September 11 release day is corroborated by dated secondary coverage, not a dated primary release page. Held out of numerical charts and automatic picks on October 23, 2026 pending complete verification of sponsorship and primary first-release evidence. This is a verification gap, not a finding that the poll was fabricated or retracted; original reported results are retained.

Emerson College / NexstarReleased Sep 3, 2026Aug 31–Sep 1750 LV49%46%±3.6 ppCredibility intervalOriginal report · Official full resultsText-to-web and online panel; Nexstar sponsored.
Method & verification notes

Text-to-web and online panel; Nexstar sponsored. Uses rounded press-release results. Release percentages are Sand 49%, Lahn 46%, and undecided 6%, a rounded total of 101%. The full workbook reports 48.6%, 45.5%, and 5.8%, respectively. Original precision is retained; no normalization or residual allocation.

Wedgewood PollsReleased Aug 30, 2026Aug 27–29600 LV51%46%±4.6 ppReported margin of errorOriginal report unavailable · Secondary source · Original investigator reportExcluded October 23, 2026. The original Iowa PDF is unavailable and its methods remain unconfirmed. Excluded from charts and automatic picks.
Method & verification notes

Excluded October 23, 2026. Historical record retained for transparency, not valid polling evidence. On October 20, FiftyPlusOne reported that Wedgewood admitted fabricating polling data after its investigation. Scrutinel subsequently identified its Iowa governor Wedgewood entry among removed polls. The original Iowa PDF is unavailable and its methods remain unconfirmed. Excluded from charts and automatic picks. The original admission post could not be independently retrieved during this review.

Suffolk UniversityReleased Aug 26, 2026Aug 20–23500 LV47.8%43.6%±4.4 ppMargin of errorOriginal report
Method & verification notes

Margin of error reported by 270toWin; 7.8% undecided and 0.8% refused.

Emerson College / NexstarReleased Aug 6, 2026Aug 2–4712 LV48%43%±3.7 ppCredibility intervalOriginal report · Official full resultsText-to-web and online panel; Nexstar sponsored. The two published precisions are shown separately; missing categories are not inferred from a residual.
Method & verification notes

Text-to-web and online panel; Nexstar sponsored. Uses rounded press-release results. Release percentages are Sand 48%, Lahn 43%, and undecided 7%. The full workbook reports Sand 48.4%, Lahn 42.7%, someone else 2.4%, and undecided 6.5%. The two published precisions are shown separately; missing categories are not inferred from a residual.

Fox NewsReleased Jul 1, 2026Jun 23–271,003 RV53%44%±3 ppMargin of errorOriginal reportFox News sponsored.
Method & verification notes

Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research; live phone interviews and text-to-web. Fox News sponsored. Governor Q9 includes leaners: Sand 53%, Lahn 44%, and do not know 3%. Other and would not vote are each printed as an asterisk in the original report; that notation is retained, not replaced with zero.

New York Times / SienaReleased Jul 1, 2026Not independently verified600 LV48%47%±5 ppReported margin of errorOriginal reportThe original NYT report and former 270toWin page are unavailable, so the results remain unconfirmed against the original report.
Method & verification notes

Historical figures are from 270toWin. The original NYT report and former 270toWin page are unavailable, so the results remain unconfirmed against the original report. Omitted from the date-based chart because field dates could not be confirmed.

ITR Foundation · JuneReleased Jun 26, 2026Jun 16–19600 LV47.7%43.4%±4.00 ppReported margin of errorOriginal reportSponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation; undecided 8.9%. Release date from sponsor’s June 26 announcement.
Method & verification notes

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation; undecided 8.9%. Conducted by Cygnal using live-phone and SMS interviews with 600 likely general-election voters; weighted to that electorate. Release date from sponsor’s June 26 announcement. Historical survey.

Who was asked matters.

LV means likely voters; RV means registered voters. Those groups differ. Pollsters also use different turnout screens, weighting, and interview modes, so movement between surveys may reflect methodology.

Allow for uncertainty.

Reported margins of error and credibility intervals describe a survey’s uncertainty; they are not the margin of error for the difference between candidates. Sampling uncertainty is only one possible source of polling error.

Read the original context.

Figures retain each source’s published precision. Undecided and other responses are not redistributed. Rounded percentages may not total 100%. Emerson reports a credibility interval, distinguished in the table.

Source correction · October 17, 2026: CNN reports a ±4.2-point sampling margin; SSRS’s October 9 release reports up to ±5.3 points for the same September 29–October 5 Iowa survey. Until resolved, its results remain in the table but are excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls. This is a source correction, not a new poll.

Selection: 24 public reports for the Sand–Lahn matchup, with 17 charted by verified fieldwork end date. NYT / Siena and CNN / SSRS reports remain in the table with their verification limits. This selected collection is not a poll average.

Official voting information →

Latest eligible Senate fieldwork: GrayHouse, October 28–31, 2026, released November 2. Initial ballot: Hinson 48%, Turek 46%, Laehn 2%, don’t know 4%. Echelon / NetChoice’s October 16–23 Senate report remains held from numerical charts and automatic picks because of conflicting unsure categories. Older reports retain their own dates.

This collection includes current and historical surveys. Polls with incomplete current-candidate coverage do not supply automatic picks. Each survey measures responses during its fieldwork; it is not a winning probability. Statewide polling is never a forecast for a congressional or legislative district. Close differences can fall within sampling uncertainty; wording, methods, turnout and sponsor also matter. Published totals may differ from 100% due to rounding or omitted categories.

STATEWIDE FEDERAL RACE

U.S. Senate polls

Latest addition: GrayHouse’s October 28–31 fieldwork, released November 2. Full ballot and methods. Earlier surveys remain below with their original dates and limitations.

U.S. Senate · November 2 release

GrayHouse

Fieldwork: October 28–31, 2026 · Released November 2, 2026

Ashley Hinson (R) 48% · Josh Turek (D) 46% · Thomas Laehn (L) 2% · Don’t know 4%

601 likely Iowa voters · ±4.0 percentage points · 95% confidence

Initial full ballot. The two-point difference is within the reported survey margin of error; it is not proof of a statistically significant lead.

Method & limitations

Funded and conducted by GrayHouse. Interviews October 28–31, 2026 with 601 likely Iowa voters from a registered-voter-file sample: SMS text-to-web 62% (n=375), live-to-cell 30% (n=183), live-to-landline 7% (n=43). Published mode percentages are rounded and retained as printed. Weighted to the modeled likely November electorate by gender, age, race, region, community type, party registration and 2024 presidential vote, calibrated to GrayHouse’s political-engagement model. Reported margin of error ±4.0 percentage points at 95% confidence; subgroup uncertainty is greater. Initial full-ballot responses: Ashley Hinson 48%, Josh Turek 46%, Thomas Laehn 2%, Don’t know 4%; not a leaner-inclusive alternative. Respondents include those who report already voting. Published rounded percentages are preserved, not recomputed from rounded weighted counts. Official release dated November 2, 2026; publisher metadata supplies a publication time, not independently established first availability. The two-point difference is within the reported survey margin of error, not proof of a statistically significant lead or a forecast. Toplines page 1; methodology page 4. No statewide poll assigns district winners.

Original toplines · pages 1 and 4 · November 2 official release

U.S. Senate · October 29 release

co/efficient

Fieldwork: October 28, 2026 · Released October 29, 2026 · official series index

Ashley Hinson (R) 48% · Josh Turek (D) 46% · Thomas Laehn (L) 1% · Undecided 5%

1,020 likely general-election voters · Pollster-reported ±3.05 percentage points · confidence level not disclosed

Full-ballot Q8. The two-point candidate difference is not proof of a statistically significant lead. Governor and Senate findings are from the same survey.

Statewide generic U.S. House ballot: Republican 49% · Democrat 45% · Undecided 6%.

Generic House question & scope

If the November 3rd general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, which Party’s candidate would you vote for?

Iowa statewide; not a district candidate poll and not used for district automatic picks. Q2 belongs to the same survey, not an additional independent poll.

Method & limitations

Independent public polling by co/efficient; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. No separate external funder is identified. Surveyed 1,020 likely general-election voters in Iowa on October 28, 2026, using mobile text responses and landline interviews. Weighted by age, gender, race, education, geography and registered party to the likely 2026 general electorate. Pollster-reported margin of error ±3.05 percentage points; confidence level, recruitment details, mode proportions, detailed likely-voter screening and response rate are not disclosed. The official series index dates the release October 29, 2026; the Iowa report itself states the release month only. Exact first-publication time is not stated. Governor and Senate questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. Published shares are retained without normalization. The margin of error is not the uncertainty of the difference between candidates; these results are not a forecast or winning probability. Senate full ballot Q8: Ashley Hinson 48%, Josh Turek 46%, Thomas Laehn 1%, undecided 5%. The separate head-to-head Q9 reports Hinson 48%, Turek 46%, undecided 6%; it is a different question in this same survey, not an additional poll, and is not mixed into the full-ballot result or used for automatic picks.

Original report · full ballot Q8 (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Official release index

U.S. Senate · October 27 release · numerical inclusion on hold

Echelon Insights / NetChoice

Fieldwork: October 16–23, 2026 · Released October 27, 2026

Josh Turek (D) 45% · Ashley Hinson (R) 43% · Thomas Laehn (L) 7% · Someone else 2% · Unsure 3% in Total / — in IA column · Did not vote for this office *%

403 voters in the likely 2026 Iowa electorate · ±6.5 percentage points · weighting-adjusted; confidence level not disclosed

Source conflict: unsure is 3% in the Iowa-only Total column but a dash in the duplicate IA column. Excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls pending resolution. The published asterisk is retained, not converted to zero.

Method & limitations

Sponsored by NetChoice; conducted by Echelon Insights October 16–23, 2026. Iowa oversample of 403 voters in the likely 2026 electorate, from a 3,644-person national and six-state study; not an independent additional national poll. English-language online and text-to-web interviews, with online panels from Cint/Lucid, PureSpectrum and RepData matched to the L2 voter file; text invitations used L2. Weighted using ACS, CPS Voting and Registration, L2 and modeled turnout, including demographic, geographic and party-by-ideology targets. Iowa margin of error ±6.5 percentage points adjusted for weighting; confidence level and Iowa-only mode proportions are not disclosed. Likely electorate includes respondents already voted or reporting definite, probable or 50–50 intent. Ballot results combine initial preferences and leaners, including already-cast ballots; they are survey responses, not election results. Governor and Senate are the same Iowa survey, not independent polls. Released October 27, 2026. Published rounded shares and literal symbols are preserved without normalization. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Material source conflict: the Iowa-only Total column (n=403) reports unsure 3%, consistent with the sponsor release, but the duplicate IA column (n=403) prints a dash for unsure. Did not vote for this office is *% in both columns; the symbol is not interpreted. Because this discrepancy is unresolved, this Senate report is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls. Complete Senate toplines: page 15; methodology: page 28.

Original toplines · pages 15 and 28 · October 27 sponsor release

U.S. Senate · October 21 release

Cook Political Report / New River Strategies / GS Strategy Group

Fieldwork: October 9–13, 2026 · Released October 21, 2026

Josh Turek (D) 46% · Ashley Hinson (R) 44% · Thomas Laehn (L) 8% · Don’t know 2%

602 likely 2026 Iowa voters · ±4.0 percentage points · 95% confidence

Full ballot including leaners. The two-point candidate gap is not proof of a statistically significant lead. This is the same survey as the governor result, not another independent poll.

Method & limitations

Sponsored by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter; conducted by New River Strategies (Democratic) and GS Strategy Group (Republican). Interviews with 602 likely 2026 Iowa voters, October 9–13, by SMS-to-web and online. Reported margin of error ±4.0 percentage points at 95% confidence. Weighting targets, recruitment and mode proportions, response rate and detailed likely-voter screening are not disclosed in the inspected methodology. Results include leaners; base responses are not mixed with the reported net categories. Governor and Senate findings are from the same Iowa survey, not independent polls. Published rounded shares are retained without normalization. The survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Released October 21, 2026; the later release does not make its fieldwork newer than the October 15–19 co/efficient survey. Complete three-candidate Senate ballot including leaners; toplines page 5. The survey margin of error is not the uncertainty of the candidate difference; a two-point edge is not proof of a statistically significant lead.

Original toplines · page 5 · Methodology · page 28 · October 21 release

Show older polls (29 reports)

U.S. Senate

co/efficient

Fieldwork: October 15–19, 2026 · Released October 19, 2026 · official series index

Ashley Hinson (R) 48% · Josh Turek (D) 45% · Thomas Laehn (L) 2% · Undecided 6%

863 likely general-election voters · Pollster-reported ±3.32 percentage points · confidence level not disclosed

Published Senate shares total 101% because of rounding. This is a full-ballot question, not the separate head-to-head question.

Statewide generic U.S. House ballot: Republican 48% · Democrat 46% · Undecided 6%.

Generic House question & scope

If the November 3rd general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, which Party’s candidate would you vote for?

Iowa statewide; not a district candidate poll and not used for district automatic picks.

Method & limitations

Independent public polling; the firm states no candidate committee, party committee or independent-expenditure sponsor. The report lists mobile text responses, landline interviews and live landline interviews; mode proportions are not disclosed. Weighted by age, gender, race, education, geography and registered party to the likely 2026 general electorate. Recruitment details, likely-voter screening, response rate and confidence level are not disclosed. The official series index dates this release October 19, 2026; the Iowa report gives the release month only. Governor, Senate and statewide generic House questions are from the same survey, not independent polls. Reported sampling uncertainty is not a forecast or winning probability. Full-ballot Q8; the separate two-candidate Q9 is not mixed into these results. Published rounded Senate shares total 101%; retained without normalization.

Original report (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Official release index

U.S. Senate

National Public Affairs (NPA)

Fieldwork: October 8–12, 2026 · Memo dated October 19, 2026 · first publication unverified

Ashley Hinson (R) 47% · Josh Turek (D) 44% · Thomas Laehn (L) 4%

678 likely general-election voters · ±3.8 percentage points · 95% confidence

Incomplete response categories: the remaining Senate responses are not specified. No undecided share is inferred. Held out of numerical charts and Pick the Polls. First-publication date is also unverified. Sponsor not identified; candidate shares include leaners.

Method & limitations

The memo does not identify a sponsor. Voter-file-based sample; live calls to landlines and cell phones and text-to-web. Weighted to the expected 2026 general electorate on key demographics; specific weighting targets, mode proportions, response rate and likely-voter screening details are not disclosed. Ballot results include leaners. Reported margin ±3.8 percentage points at 95% confidence. October 19, 2026 is the memo date. Published rounded percentages are retained without normalization. This survey is not a forecast or winning probability. Three reported candidate shares including leaners; separate head-to-head results are not mixed in. The memo’s generic House question does not disclose all response categories and is excluded from numerical treatment. The Senate memo does not specify the remaining response categories. No undecided percentage is inferred; this incomplete Senate record is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls pending full response categories.

Original report

Correction · October 29, 2026: Removed an unsupported 5% undecided label from this Senate poll. The three reported candidate shares are unchanged. The governor result is unaffected.

U.S. Senate

Trafalgar

Fieldwork: October 13–15, 2026 · Released October 17, 2026 · 8:15:09 p.m. CDT (October 18 UTC)

Ashley Hinson (R) 45.9% · Josh Turek (D) 44.2% · Thomas Laehn (L) 3.5% · Undecided 6.4%

1,094 likely general-election voters · Pollster-reported ±2.9 percentage points · 95% confidence

Sponsor and survey-specific methods are not disclosed. Hinson’s 1.7-point edge is smaller than the reported ±2.9-point margin; it does not establish a certain winner.

Method & limitations

Sponsor and survey-specific interview modes, recruitment, weighting and screening are not disclosed. The report links to general methodology, which does not establish the methods used for this survey. Response rate: 5.5%. Reported margin ±2.9 percentage points at 95% confidence. Recorded publication: October 17, 2026 at 8:15:09 p.m. CDT (October 18 at 01:15:09 UTC); the publisher’s homepage displays October 18. The later October 18 modification at 01:26:34 UTC is not the publication time. Published rounded shares are retained without normalization. This survey is not a forecast or winning probability.

Original report · Pollster article · Official publication record

U.S. Senate

Marist University

Fieldwork: October 8–11, 2026 · Released October 15, 2026

Josh Turek (D) 48% · Ashley Hinson (R) 45% · Another party candidate 2% · Undecided 4% · No response 1%

1,100 registered voters; likelihood-weighted LV results; separate LV count not reported · ±6.6 percentage points

Thomas Laehn is not individually named, so this survey is excluded from Senate Pick the Polls. RV and LV are versions of one survey.

Method & limitations

Marist University funded. October 8–11 interviews with 1,100 Iowa registered voters: 186 live telephone, 778 text and 136 online. Telephone sample randomly selected from the L2 voter database; online panelists matched by Cint to L2. English and Spanish interviews; demographic, education and regional weights, then estimated voting-probability weights for likely-voter results. Separate unweighted LV count is not reported; 1,100 is the RV base, not an LV count. LV margin of error ±6.6 points; RV margin ±4.5 points; design effect 2.34 incorporated. Published rounded shares and <1 are retained without normalization. RV and LV are alternative populations of the same survey, not independent polls. No September-RV to October-LV trend is inferred. Released October 15, 2026. Senate RV: Turek 51%, Hinson 44%, another party 2%, undecided 3%, no response <1%. Thomas Laehn is not individually named; another party is not assigned to him. Excluded from Senate Pick the Polls because current candidate coverage is incomplete. Statewide generic congressional LV ballot: Democratic 47%, Republican 50%, another party 1%, unsure 2%, no response 1% (rounded total 101%); this is not a district candidate poll and supplies no district automatic picks.

Original tables · Marist release

U.S. Senate

YouGov

Fieldwork: October 6–12, 2026 · Released October 14, 2026 · official index

Josh Turek (D) 47% · Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Someone else 2% · Undecided 4% · Will not vote 0%

2,245 likely voters · voter-list text invitations to online interviews · ±3.1 percentage points · reported margin of error

No separate sponsor is identified. Rounded shares total 99%. Thomas Laehn is not individually listed, so this survey is excluded from Senate Pick the Polls. The question note describes allocating undecideds, but the table retains 4% undecided.

Method & limitations

No separate sponsor is identified in the original PDF. Stratified random sample from the Iowa registered-voter list; text invitations to online interviews. Weighted by gender, age, geography, party registration, and imputed education, 2024 presidential vote and past Senate vote. Likely-voter weights use past vote, demographics and self-reported likelihood to vote. Five questions are not reported. October 14 publication is established by YouGov’s official survey-results index metadata; the PDF itself supplies fieldwork dates but no release date. This likely-voter sample is distinct from the September registered-voter record; no direct trend is inferred. Not a forecast or winning probability. The question note says undecided voters were asked a preference and allocated, while the displayed table still reports 4% undecided; both are preserved without further allocation. Published rounded shares total 99%; retained without normalization. Thomas Laehn is not individually listed: someone else is not assigned to him. Incomplete current-candidate coverage excludes this result from Senate Pick the Polls.

Original report · YouGov publication index

U.S. Senate

Emerson College / Nexstar

Fieldwork: October 5–6, 2026 · Released October 9, 2026

Ashley Hinson (R) 46.6% · Josh Turek (D) 45.0% · Thomas Laehn (L) 1.5% · Undecided 7.0%

650 likely voters · ±3.8-point credibility interval

Rounded results total 100.1%; retained as reported. These are vote shares, not winning probabilities.

Method & limitations

Nexstar Media sponsored. October 5–6 survey of 650 Iowa likely voters; MMS text-to-web using the Aristotle voter file plus PureSpectrum online-panel interviews, hosted on QuestionPro. Weighted by gender, education, party registration and region. Pollster-reported ±3.8-point credibility interval, not a conventional probability-sampling margin of error. Exact workbook toplines rounded to one decimal; not a forecast or winning probability. Published rounded Senate percentages total 100.1%; retained without normalization.

Original release · Original toplines & crosstabs

U.S. Senate

CNN / SSRS

Fieldwork: September 29–October 5, 2026 · Released October 8, 2026

Ashley Hinson (R) 45% · Josh Turek (D) 43%

801 likely voters · online and live telephone interviews · Conflicting published margins: CNN ±4.2 pp; SSRS up to ±5.3 pp

CNN reports no clear leader. The published margins conflict, and Laehn’s individual result and other response categories are not independently verified. No residual percentages are inferred. Excluded from numerical charts and Senate Pick the Polls.

Method & limitations

CNN poll conducted by SSRS, September 29–October 5. Random sample from voter lists and a probability-based panel; online and live telephone interviews. All sampled registered voters are weighted by predicted likelihood of voting. Iowa likely-voter base: 801. CNN’s October 8 syndicated report lists ±4.2 points; SSRS’s October 9 release lists up to ±5.3 points for the same Iowa survey. The difference is unresolved. Candidate results are from CNN’s chart; the full questionnaire and other response categories are unavailable. No residual percentages are inferred. This is not a forecast or winning probability. Because the published margins conflict, this survey is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls until the discrepancy is resolved. The October 9 supplementary release is not a new poll; the original October 8 release date and candidate results are unchanged. Source correction checked October 17, 2026. CNN reports no clear leader. Thomas Laehn’s individual result is not verified in the accessible release; Senate candidate coverage remains incomplete.

CNN original report · SSRS methodology · Oct 9 · CNN syndicated report · Oct 8
U.S. Senate

Suffolk University

Fieldwork: October 1–4, 2026 · Released October 7, 2026

Josh Turek (D) 48% · Ashley Hinson (R) 43.6% · Thomas Laehn (L) 2.2% · Undecided 5.6% · Refused 0.6%

500 likely general-election voters · live telephone interviews · ±4.4 percentage points · sampling margin at 95% confidence

First-choice results. Suffolk describes the Senate result as within sampling error; this is not a forecast or winning probability.

Method & limitations

Q7 first choice, including all three candidates. Suffolk describes the Senate result as within sampling error. Release and questionnaire identify likely voters despite the index describing registered voters. Q8 second-choice responses are not added to the first-choice result. Not a forecast or winning probability.

Suffolk original questionnaire · Release & methods
U.S. Senate · historical comparison

Abacus Data

Fieldwork: August 26–28, 2026 · Released September 2, 2026

Decided registered voters: Josh Turek (D) 52% · Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Other 2%. Decided likely voters: Turek 54% · Hinson 45% · Other 1%.

Iowa: 500 registered voters; 323 likely voters before excluding undecideds · Online panel; no formal probability-sampling margin of error

Original interactive chart excludes undecided voters from both vote shares; Iowa decided-only bases are not reported. The 500 registered-voter and 323 likely-voter counts describe the full Iowa sample and subsample, not the decided-only denominators. The source offers approximate sampling margins, but a formal probability-sampling margin does not apply to an online panel. Historical comparison, not a newly fielded poll or winning probability.

Method & limitations

Self-funded online survey, weighted independently within each state. Original interactive chart excludes undecided voters from both vote shares; Iowa decided-only bases are not reported. The 500 registered-voter and 323 likely-voter counts describe the full Iowa sample and subsample, not the decided-only denominators. Likely voters said they were absolutely certain or very likely to vote. The source offers approximate sampling margins, but a formal probability-sampling margin does not apply to an online panel. Historical comparison, not a newly fielded poll or winning probability.

Original release

U.S. Senate

New York Times / Siena

Ashley Hinson (R) 48% · Josh Turek (D) 47%

Fieldwork: not independently verified
Siena Senate announcement: October 3, 2026
Likely voters · sample size not independently verified
Uncertainty not independently verified from accessible primary material

Fieldwork, sample size, interview mode, uncertainty and other response categories were not independently verified. No residual percentages are inferred; this is a survey snapshot, not a winning probability.

Method & limitations

NYT / Siena partnership. Siena’s October 3 original announcement verifies these likely-voter toplines. Fieldwork, sample size, interview mode, uncertainty and other response categories were not independently verified. No residual percentages are inferred; this is a survey snapshot, not a winning probability.

Siena original Senate announcement

U.S. Senate

Quantus Insights

Ashley Hinson (R) 47.1% · Josh Turek (D) 45.8% · Thomas Laehn (L) 1.7% · Undecided 5.4%

Fieldwork: September 28–29, 2026
Release: September 30, 2026
738 interviews; 714 respondents in the likely-voter ballot analysis
±3.8 percentage points · reported full-study margin of error at 95% confidence; not separately reported for the 714-person ballot subset

Quantus Insights release; no outside sponsor identified. Excludes 24 respondents who said they would not vote.

Method & limitations

Quantus Insights release; no outside sponsor identified. SMS invitations to mobile phones; weighted to Iowa likely-electorate benchmarks. Excludes 24 respondents who said they would not vote. Full ballot without leaners; separate leaner-inclusive and two-candidate questions are not mixed into these results. The 1.3-point difference is within the reported sampling uncertainty.

Quantus Insights original report

U.S. Senate

Rasmussen Reports

Josh Turek (D) 47% · Ashley Hinson (R) 43% · Thomas Laehn (L) 3% · Not sure 7%

Fieldwork: September 28–30, 2026
Release: October 2, 2026
1,048 likely voters
±3 percentage points · margin of sampling error

Self-funded. Fieldwork: Pulse Opinion Research. Telephone and online survey.

Rasmussen Reports original report

U.S. Senate

Fox News

Josh Turek (D) 49% · Ashley Hinson (R) 47% · Other 1% · Do not know 2% · Would not vote below 0.5%

Fieldwork: September 24–28, 2026
Release: October 1, 2026
1,008 likely voters
±3 percentage points · margin of sampling error

Fox News sponsored; Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research.

Method & limitations

Fox News sponsored; Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research. Live phone and text-to-web, with leaners. Full sample: 1,204 registered voters, Turek 50%, Hinson 46%, other 1%, do not know 3%, would not vote below 0.5%; ±2.5 points. The LV subsample and RV sample are one survey.

Fox News original report

U.S. Senate

Marist University

Josh Turek (D) 50% · Ashley Hinson (R) 42% · Other 2% · Undecided/Refused 5%

Fieldwork: September 17–20, 2026
Release: September 22, 2026
1,050 registered voters
±4.4 percentage points · margin of sampling error

Conducted by Marist; no outside sponsor identified in the release. Live phone, text and online. Original table packet, page 5: other 2% and undecided/refused 5%. Published rounded shares total 99%; retained without normalization. Other is not an individual Thomas Laehn result; excluded from Senate Pick the Polls because current-candidate coverage is incomplete. Full response categories verified October 10, 2026.

Marist University original report

Original table packet · page 5

U.S. Senate

Cygnal / ITR Foundation

Josh Turek (D) 42.9% · Ashley Hinson (R) 42.9% · Thomas Laehn (L) 3.6% · Undecided 10.6%

Fieldwork: September 9–11, 2026
Release: September 15, 2026
500 likely voters
±4.38 percentage points · margin of error

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Live phone and SMS; weighted to likely general-election voters.

Cygnal / ITR Foundation original report

U.S. Senate

Emerson College / Nexstar

Josh Turek (D) 45% · Ashley Hinson (R) 50%

Fieldwork: August 31–September 1, 2026
Release: September 3, 2026
750 likely voters
±3.6 percentage points · credibility interval

Sponsored by Nexstar Media. The release reports Hinson 50% and Turek 45%. Its linked results workbook reports Hinson 49.5%, Turek 45.1%, Thomas Laehn 0.8% and undecided 4.7%. The workbook percentages total 100.1% because of rounding; neither set is normalized. Text-to-web and matched online panel, weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region. The reported ±3.6-point credibility interval is not a conventional probability-sample margin of error. Historical survey.

Emerson College / Nexstar original report

Original results workbook

U.S. Senate

Emerson College / Nexstar · August

Ashley Hinson (R) 48% · Josh Turek (D) 45% · Undecided 6%

Fieldwork: August 2–4, 2026
Release: August 6, 2026
712 likely voters
±3.7 percentage points · credibility interval

The linked workbook supplies the additional response categories; headline percentages retain the release’s rounding.

Method & limitations

Nexstar Media partnership. The release reports Hinson 48%, Turek 45% and undecided 6%. Its linked results workbook reports Hinson 47.5%, Turek 45.0%, someone else 1.4% and undecided 6.1%. The release and workbook use different rounding; both are retained as published. Someone else is not an individual Thomas Laehn result. Text-to-web and online panels, weighted by demographic, party-registration and regional benchmarks. Historical survey; not added to Pick the Polls.

Emerson College / Nexstar · August original report

Original results workbook

U.S. Senate

Fox News · June

Josh Turek (D) 50% · Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Other below 0.5% · Would not vote below 0.5% · Do not know 4%

Fieldwork: June 23–27, 2026
Release: July 1, 2026
1,003 registered voters
±3 percentage points · margin of sampling error

Fox News sponsored; Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research. Live landline/cellphone interviews and text-to-web; includes leaners. Historical registered-voter survey, not a likely-voter forecast.

Fox News · June original report

U.S. Senate

ITR Foundation · June

Ashley Hinson (R) 46.0% · Josh Turek (D) 44.2% · Undecided 9.8%

Fieldwork: June 16–19, 2026
Release: June 26, 2026 · sponsor release
600 likely general-election voters
±4.00 percentage points · reported margin of error

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Conducted by Cygnal using live-phone and SMS interviews with 600 likely general-election voters; weighted to that electorate. Historical survey.

ITR Foundation · June original report

U.S. Senate

Public Policy Polling / DSCC

Josh Turek (D) 46% · Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Undecided 7%

Fieldwork: June 3–4, 2026
Release: June 8, 2026 · memo date
557 registered voters
±4.2 percentage points · reported margin of error

Commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). 70% text interviews, 30% landline. Sponsor memo does not explain the remaining percentage point. Historical partisan-sponsored survey.

Public Policy Polling / DSCC original report

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

InsiderAdvantage

Fieldwork: September 22–23, 2026 · Released September 26, 2026

Josh Turek (D) 47.4% · Ashley Hinson (R) 45.7% · Thomas Laehn (L) 1.6% · Another candidate 0.9% · Undecided 4.4%

1,200 likely voters · mixed-mode text/online panel · Pollster-reported ±2.83 percentage points

These are voter responses, not winning probabilities.

Method & limitations

No outside sponsor is named in the pollster’s release. Mixed-mode text/online panel, weighted by age, race, gender and political affiliation. Results are from the original topline image. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

Trafalgar

Fieldwork: September 16–18, 2026 · Released September 18, 2026 · 9:08:57 p.m. CDT (September 19 UTC)

Ashley Hinson (R) 44.0% · Josh Turek (D) 42.1% · Thomas Laehn (L) 3.4% · Undecided 10.4%

1,089 likely general-election voters · Pollster-reported ±2.9 percentage points · 95% confidence

Survey-specific mode proportions are not disclosed. Rounded shares total 99.9%.

Method & limitations

No outside sponsor named. Fieldwork, sample and ballot: original report pages 2 and 8–9. The report points to general mixed-method documentation; survey-specific mode proportions are not disclosed. Response rate: 5.7%. Official publication record: September 18, 2026 at 9:08:57 p.m. CDT (September 19 at 02:08:57 UTC). Published rounded shares total 99.9%; retained without normalization. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source · Official publication record

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

co/efficient

Fieldwork: September 14–16, 2026 · Released September 16, 2026 · official series index

Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Josh Turek (D) 42% · Thomas Laehn (L) 2% · Undecided 9%

831 likely general-election voters · mobile text and landline interviews · Pollster-reported ±3.39 percentage points

Same survey as the governor record. Full-ballot Q6 totals 99%; separate two-candidate results are not mixed in. Verification incomplete: excluded from automatic picks pending recovery of the original September source capture. Earlier reported results remain for historical reference.

Method & limitations

Firm describes independent public polling with no candidate, party or independent-expenditure sponsor. Weighted by age, gender, race, education, congressional district and community type. Full-ballot Q6; the separate two-candidate Q7 is not mixed into these results. Published rounded shares total 99%; retained without normalization. The official series index verifies the September 16 release day. This is the same survey as the existing governor record, not an independent additional survey. Historical survey; not a winning probability. The original Iowa report URL and series index now display the October release, superseding their September content. These September figures and release context are retained from the earlier source verification; the current URL is not evidence of the September results.

Original report (Rotating source URL; older fieldwork may no longer appear.) · Additional source

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

YouGov

Fieldwork: September 3–8, 2026 · Released September 11, 2026 · same-survey governor record; PDF does not establish release day

Josh Turek (D) 44% · Ashley Hinson (R) 43% · Someone else 1% · Undecided 11% · Will not vote in race 2%

2,169 registered voters · Senate question base: 2,166 · Pollster-reported ±3.5 percentage points · full registered-voter sample

Someone else is not Laehn-specific; not eligible for Senate Pick the Polls. Rounded shares total 101%.

Method & limitations

No separate sponsor is identified in the pollster’s PDF. Stratified random sample from the Iowa voter list, invited by text to the online YouGov system; weighted by gender, age, geography, registration, imputed education and 2024 vote. Q7 and methods on pages 2, 10 and 14. Registered-voter results match the population used in the existing governor record; likely-voter subsets are not independent polls. September 11 is the publication date recorded for the same survey’s governor results; the Senate PDF does not specify a publication day. Published rounded shares total 101%; retained without normalization. Someone else is not an individual Thomas Laehn result; excluded from Senate Pick the Polls because current-candidate coverage is incomplete. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

Global Strategy Group

Fieldwork: August 27–31, 2026 · Released September 9, 2026 · first public report; memo dated September only

Josh Turek (D) 46% · Ashley Hinson (R) 42% · Thomas Laehn (L) 6% · Undecided 6%

800 likely general-election voters · phone and text-to-web · ±3.5 percentage points · 95% confidence

Turek campaign-sponsored internal; initial ballot only. September 9 dates the public report, not the memo.

Method & limitations

Josh Turek campaign-sponsored internal poll, confirmed by the original public publisher, Semafor. Initial ballot only; later prompted responses are not mixed in. September 9 is the first public report date; the original memo is dated September 2026 without a day. Partisan internal polling should be read with its sponsorship and limited release context. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

Suffolk University

Fieldwork: August 20–23, 2026 · Released August 26, 2026

Ashley Hinson (R) 45.4% · Josh Turek (D) 40.8% · Thomas Laehn (L) 4.0% · Undecided 9.2% · Refused 0.6%

500 likely general-election voters · live landline/cellphone interviews · ±4.4 percentage points · reported margin of error

Same survey as the August governor record. First choices only; second choices are not added.

Method & limitations

Suffolk University; no separate commissioner is identified in the pollster’s materials. Q7 first choice on page 2; Q8 second choices are not added. Interview mode is from the official poll index. These results come from the same August poll as the governor results, not a separate survey. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source

U.S. Senate · historical comparison

Rasmussen Reports · September 8–10

Fieldwork: September 8–10, 2026 · Release: September 11, 2026 · official article archive

Josh Turek (D) 45% · Ashley Hinson (R) 40% · Thomas Laehn (L) 4% · Not sure 11%

1,031 Iowa likely voters · telephone and online · The pollster’s materials list different margins of error: ±3 points in the toplines and ±2 points in the article, both at 95% confidence

The pollster lists ±3 points in the toplines and ±2 in the article. Because these conflict, this historical poll is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls.

Method & limitations

Self-funded per the official article; fieldwork by Pulse Opinion Research. The survey article identifies telephone and online interviews. General methodology describes automated calls and online-panel interviews, with demographic and political weighting; survey-specific mode allocation is not disclosed. The pollster’s toplines report ±3 points while its article reports ±2. The official archive dates the release September 11. Because the margins of error conflict, this historical poll is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source · Publication context

U.S. Senate · historical preprimary hypothetical

Echelon Insights / NetChoice

Fieldwork: April 3–9, 2026 · Release: April 21, 2026 · sponsor announcement

Josh Turek (D) 46% · Ashley Hinson (R) 45% · Unsure 9%

377 Iowa likely-electorate respondents · Iowa oversample of national n=2,880 study · Pollster-reported Iowa ±6.6 points, adjusted for weighting

Preprimary hypothetical two-candidate pairing; Thomas Laehn was not tested. Historical context only, excluded from current-ballot charts and automatic picks. Iowa sample precision is ±6.6 points.

Method & limitations

Sponsored by NetChoice. Q21 hypothetical general-election pairing asked before the primary, including definitely/probably/lean responses. Online-panel respondents from the Cint/Lucid exchange matched to the L2 voter file, plus L2 text-to-web invitations. National mode counts are 1,049 text-to-web and 1,831 panel; Iowa mode counts are not separately disclosed. Weighted for modeled turnout, demographic, geographic and political characteristics. Use the Iowa ±6.6-point uncertainty, not the national ±3.2. Thomas Laehn was not tested, so this does not represent the complete current ballot and is excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls. The alternate Wahls pairing is the same survey, not a separate poll. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source

U.S. Senate · historical preprimary hypothetical

GBAO

Fieldwork: March 10–16, 2026 · Release: April 13, 2026 · first verified public report; memo dated March 31

Ashley Hinson (R) 47% · Josh Turek (D) 43% · Undecided 11%

1,200 Iowa likely general-election voters · live telephone and text message · Pollster-reported ±2.8 points · 95% confidence

Preprimary hypothetical without Thomas Laehn; initial ballot only. Rounded shares total 101%. Historical context only, excluded from current-ballot charts and automatic picks. Sponsor attribution comes from reporting, not the memo.

Method & limitations

Initial hypothetical general-election ballot before positive profiles and negative messaging. The memo identifies GBAO, not GQR. Original-source reporting identifies ModSquad as the Democratic-aligned sponsor; the memo itself does not name the commissioner. Full questionnaire, weighting and likely-voter screen are not disclosed. Published rounded shares total 101%; retained without normalization. Thomas Laehn was not tested, so this is incomplete for the current ballot and excluded from numerical charts and Pick the Polls. Later profile and message-test results are not independent baseline polls. March 31 is the memo date; April 13 is the first verified public report. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source · Publication context

IOWA’S CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

U.S. House polls

U.S. House · IA-01

Wavefield Research

Fieldwork: September 29–October 2, 2026 · Released October 5, 2026

Christina Bohannan (D) 45% · Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 29% · Michael Bridgford (I) 18% · Undecided 9%

297 likely voters · online panel · Pollster reports ±5.7 points; probability-sampling precision is not established

Candidate-promotional release published by River Cities’ Reader; sponsor not identified. Full toplines and crosstabs are available only upon request and were not independently reviewed. The reported margin of error is a pollster claim, not established probability-sampling precision. This district survey is not a forecast.

Method & limitations

Candidate-promotional release published by River Cities’ Reader; sponsor not identified. Online panel of IA-01 likely voters. Published percentages total 101%; retained as reported without normalization. Full toplines and crosstabs are available only upon request and were not independently reviewed. The reported margin of error is a pollster claim, not established probability-sampling precision. This district survey is not a forecast.

Original release

U.S. House · IA-01 only

The Bullfinch Group

Christina Bohannan (D) 40% · Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 35% · Michael Bridgford (I) 11% · Another candidate 2% · Would not vote 0% · Unsure 11%

Fieldwork: July 13–16, 2026
Release: Memo July 24, 2026 · sponsor page updated July 28, 2026
705 likely general-election voters in IA-01
±3.69 percentage points · reported margin of error

Sponsors: Independent Center Voice / Independent Leadership Council. Full published rounded shares total 99%; retained as reported without normalization. This older survey is not a current district forecast.

Method & limitations

Sponsors: Independent Center Voice / Independent Leadership Council. Live phone and SMS-to-web. The sponsor-linked toplines (Q10, page 3) and crosstabs report all ballot responses: the three named candidates, another candidate 2%, would not vote 0%, and unsure 11%. Full published rounded shares total 99%; retained as reported without normalization. This older survey is not a current district forecast. First publication date of the full toplines and crosstabs is not established; memo and sponsor-update dates remain distinct.

Sponsor toplines · Q10, page 3 · Sponsor crosstabs · page 1 · July 24 memo · Sponsor page · updated July 28

Source correction · October 26, 2026: Added the sponsor’s reported 2% another-candidate and 0% would-not-vote categories to this historical July poll. The full rounded ballot totals 99%, not 97%. Candidate shares are unchanged.

U.S. House · IA-02 only

Global Strategy Group / House Majority PAC

Lindsay James (D) 46% · Joe Mitchell (R) 45%

Fieldwork: July 14–19, 2026
Release: August 6, 2026
Sample size and voter screen not disclosed in release
Uncertainty and collection method not disclosed

Democratic-aligned sponsor: House Majority PAC. Initial head-to-head question; remaining responses not provided. Limited disclosure: compare cautiously. This older survey is not a current district forecast.

Global Strategy Group / House Majority PAC original report

ATTORNEY GENERAL · AGRICULTURE · SECRETARY OF STATE

Statewide office polls

Explore the attorney general polling dashboard, historical result and other signals →

Attorney General

Cygnal / ITR Foundation

Nate Willems (D) 40.0% · Brenna Bird (R) 39.5% · Undecided 20.5%

Fieldwork: September 9–11, 2026
Release: September 15, 2026
500 likely voters statewide
±4.38 percentage points · margin of error

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Live phone and SMS; same statewide survey as the Cygnal Senate and governor questions.

Cygnal / ITR Foundation original report

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture

Cygnal / ITR Foundation

Chris Jones (D) 35.7% · Mike Naig (R) 42.6% · Undecided 21.7%

Fieldwork: September 9–11, 2026
Release: September 15, 2026
500 likely voters statewide
±4.38 percentage points · margin of error

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Live phone and SMS; same statewide survey, not an additional independent poll.

Cygnal / ITR Foundation original report

Secretary of State

Change Research

Paul Pate (R) 42% · Ryan Peterman (D) 40% · Undecided 18%

Fieldwork: September 11–14, 2026
Release: September 17, 2026 · memo date
704 likely general-election voters
±3.9 percentage points · reported margin of error

Memo does not identify the commissioning sponsor or interview mode. Sponsor claims from secondary sources are not treated as verified.

Method & limitations

Initial ballot, before positive candidate messaging. Memo does not identify the commissioning sponsor or interview mode. Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity and 2024 presidential vote. Sponsor claims from secondary sources are not treated as verified.

Change Research original report

Attorney General

ITR Foundation · June

Brenna Bird (R) 43.6% · Nate Willems (D) 39.0% · Undecided 17.4%

Fieldwork: June 16–19, 2026
Release: June 26, 2026 · sponsor release
600 likely general-election voters
±4.00 percentage points · reported margin of error

Sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Conducted by Cygnal using live-phone and SMS interviews with 600 likely general-election voters; weighted to that electorate. Historical survey.

ITR Foundation · June original report

Show older polls (1 report)

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture · historical comparison

Change Research / Chris Jones campaign

Fieldwork: July 28–August 1, 2026 · Release: Memo August 5; publicly reported August 12, 2026 · earliest public release day unverified

Mike Naig (R) 42% · Chris Jones (D) 40% · Not sure 16% · Would not vote 2%

1,071 likely general-election voters · online survey · Pollster-reported modeled margin of error ±3.1 points

Candidate-commissioned internal poll. Initial ballot WITH leaners, before biographies or messages. Memo and public-report dates are distinct; original release day is unverified. Pick the Polls uses the newer September Cygnal poll.

Method & limitations

Commissioned by Chris Jones for Iowa, a Democratic candidate campaign. Initial ballot WITH leaners, before candidate biographies and issue-message tests. Online English survey on SurveyMonkey: 322 respondents recruited through Facebook/Instagram/web ads and 749 through Echo19 voter-file text invitations. Weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, ZIP code and 2024 presidential vote. The modeled margin uses effective sample size/design effect, not simple-random-sample sampling precision. August 5 is the memo date; August 12 is a verified public report, not an established first release day. Later biography and message-test results are not independent baseline polls. Historical survey; not a winning probability.

Original report · Additional source · Publication context

This selected collection is not a poll average. Records with unverified results or unresolved population questions are omitted. Qualified historical cards disclose incomplete candidate lists or conflicting uncertainty figures and are excluded from automatic picks. Viewing polls does not change your picks.

Iowa Senate District 35 · two weighting versions

State Navigate’s September 29–October 1 survey gives different leaders under two published methods. With leaners, the standard version reports Mike Zimmer (D) 46%, Joe Stutting (R) 43% and undecided 11%; the version weighted to recalled 2024 presidential voting within each region reports Stutting 47%, Zimmer 45% and undecided 8%.

The standard release lists 403 likely voters; the recall-weighted release lists 407. Both report ±4.9 points. Text invitations directed voter-file respondents to an online survey. The recall-weighted methodology also applies a five-point Democratic environment adjustment within regions. These are alternative versions of one survey effort, not independent polls. The pollster flags recall and nonresponse concerns. Because the published methods produce opposite leaders, this survey does not generate a Pick the Polls suggestion.

These results describe SD35 only, not Iowa statewide. Published October 6, 2026, as established by the pollster’s original article; publication date shown in the original article.

Standard version and methods · October 6 publication article · Presidential-recall weighting version